Sunday, November 2, 2008

Target and the proposed REIT

Target's shares (NYSE: TGT) fell 6% on Thursday, AFTER bill Ackman announced his plan to enhance the value of Target's equity through a REIT spinoff.

It seemed safe to conclude the market doesn't like his plan. But then, the stock gained most of that value back on Friday. So one might have to re-think this.

I'll attaching a stock chart for last week. Target's price moves are the blue line, compared here to those of the DJIA, in yellow.

Target seems to have risen Tuesday and Wednesday. The DJIA too was rising Tuesday, but was flat on Wednesday. We can infer, I think, that traders were "buying on the rumor" as the old adage has it. They were buying on the expectation that Ackman would present a plan, even without knowing what the plan was.

What's the other half of that aage? "Buy on the rumor, sell on the fact." My own best guess is that when Ackman publicly announced his plan, whatever it was, there was bound to be some decline.

then on Friday, with the twin requirements of that adage satisfied, did the market finally express its considered opinion of the plan? If so, the plan is good, but not a Wowser! kind of good. The price rose Friday, but so did the DJIA as a whole, and the Target rise was only slightly greater than the Dow's.

I'm in a lazy Sunday kind of mood so I've let the market do my thinking for me. Here's a link to those ho want to read some less lazy blogging on this issue.

No comments: