OSTK's stock price

The price of a share of Overstock.com Inc.'s equity has drifted downward considerably since the company filed that shockingly unaudited 10Q a little more than a month ago.

A share was worth $16.25 at the close of business November 16, but only $13.22 after yesterday.

Still, one might fairly argue that the Refco analogy that immediately sprung to my mind at the time was hasty. Refco folded within a single week after its accounting came under scrutiny. That scrutiny began in earnest, as I've mentioned before, on October 10, 2005 when the company announced it had discovered a receivable owed to the company in the amnount of $430 million. Refco filed for chapter 11 protection only one week later. Since Overstock is still around, should we dismiss the proposed analogy?

Not entirely. Financial services firms, like Refco, are especially vulnerable to a quick unravelling, simply because trust is all they are selling. It is their stock in trade. If Overstock were only selling trust in its value as a counter-party, it would likely be done now, too. But Overstock is selling physical merchandise, a fact that can slow the forces of destruction.

The Facebook shenanigans that have more recently garnered attention began well before the fall-out of auditee with auditor. Yet the emergence of the former into the light of dayt so soon after the latter has a poetic appropriateness to it, and some of the statements that Byrne and Bagley have made since the matter became public have had the sound of desperation.

Oh, BTW, a moment ago I mentioned that Overstock sells physical merchandise. I wonder, though, if that is still what underlies its stock price. Perhaps for purposes of stock analysts Overstock is really selling a share of its lawsuits. But more on that possibility another time.

Overstock Files Unreviewed 10Q

This is amazing.

A tip of the hat to Overstock-news-junkie Gary Weiss here. As Weiss points out, even Bernie Madoff had "some accountant somewhere" who would review his filings. But Overstock files this quarter without an auditor review. And it opens up its press release on the subject by quoting Nietzsche: "All things are subject to interpretation; whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth."

I'm getting a Refco-in-October-2005 kind of vibe about Overstock right now.

You may remember that the first time the naive portion of the world learned that there was anything wrong at Refco it was Monday, October 10, 2005, when Refco announced that through an internal review over the weekend it had discovered a receivable owed to the company in the amount of approximately US$430 million.

That struck many people as a rather strange thing to suddenly 'discover' and the stock price started tanking.

Over the course of that week, further revelations came out. I won't go into them now because I have no reason to believe they are useful to the analogy. But the gist of it is, the initial market sell-off was more than justified by the underlying facts. Only one week later, Refco filed for chapter 11 protection.

I'm not saying that the same will happen here. I have no idea. And Overstock's argument with its (former) auditor, Grant Thornton, seems to have involved a matter quantitatively much smaller than the sum involved in the news that broke on October 10, 2005. But this has that feel -- a bit of accounting-matter weirdness that is sufficiently unusual that one suspects there is more to it. Overstock made this announcement after the markets had closed (check the PR Newswire announcement to which I linked you above -- it gives the time of release as 5:35 EST Monday.)

The market will make a judgment soon enough.