Sunday, October 19, 2008

I didn't see it coming

In a sudden fit of humility, suitable perhaps for a Sunday morning, I've decided to remind you of a prediction I made a month ago that has proven false.

Crude oil prices.

I noted the ongoing fall of crude oil prices. They had been at around $150 at their mid-summer peak, but by last month had dipped into the upper $90s.

With my customary brilliance, I said, this has "likely gone as far as it is going to go."

Oops. It has lost another $30 per barrel. And, even better, the fall has shown up in the price of gasoline at the pumps. I'm delighted to have been wrong.

The effective halving of the price of crude might be the only thing keeping our economy going at all at the moment, given the credit squeeze and consequent Wall Street meltdown.

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